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  • Thursday, July 20, 2006

     

    Real Money Blog

    ETF Factor Weighs Heavy
    07/20/2006 3:29 PM

    In this article, Cramer boldly states: "if it weren't for expiration and all the pinning of these darned ETFs, I believe we might have been up today."

    Furthermore, he feels short sellers are pressuring the index's lower by selling the underlying ETF's.

    He blames the selloff on the ETF's calling them "rogue instruments."

    Cramer sums it up: "If I were running one of these companies I would sue to get my stock out of these stupid ETFs. Instead, managements don't even know it is happening."

    Heads Up! Oil ETF Hits Key Mark
    07/20/2006 2:22 PM

    In this article, Cramer believes the OIH will bottom at $135.

    He exclaims: "
    It should stop here because there is so much July 135 put volume that it will buoy the index. That stuff is going on all over this place. Just watch it, we are going to bottom here."

    Pressure Builds on Oil Services ETF
    07/20/2006 1:34 PM

    In this article, Cramer cites wild swings in stocks and attributes it to option players attempting to pin stocks at strike prices, ahead of tomorrow's expiration.

    Bottom line: Cramer believes the OIH will bottom at $135.

    Tech's Siren Song
    07/20/2006 11:32 AM

    In this article, Cramer believes the market is still defined by tech stocks.

    He exclaims: "
    Consequently, even as the market itself treads water, people are leaving the table because of their overweighting in tech."

    Furthermore, he cites tech being in "in major bear-market modes" and suggests having a diversified portfolio-- without the overweight bias in tech.

    Get Stapled to the Upside
    07/20/2006 10:03 AM

    In this article, Cramer is now bullish on tech and not-so-bullish on consumer staples such as HSY, GIS and KO.

    He exclaims: "
    But for the slower-growth plays, the Hersheys and the General Mills and the Kelloggs and the Cokes, those have to come in."

    He feels the market will rotate out of defense into high growth. However, he would be a buyer of defense stocks that offer upside surprise capability, such as: PEP, WAG, MO and MCD.

    Less Danger in Natural Gas
    07/20/2006 9:49 AM

    In this article, Cramer feels buying the drillers pinned to nat gas, opposed to oil, is less risky. He believes nat gas drillers will "fly" if two things occur:
    1. The companies say there is no softness in drilling
    2. This rally in natural gas, which is now in day three, holds up.
    He exclaims: "It is amazing that the land-based drillers are almost all at their 52-week lows, even though we know that we have to find more natural gas simply because longer term we are really short the stuff and we use it in 63% of American homes."

    Bottom line: Cramer believes "Once storage space is diminished from heat and storms" investors will pile into stocks like NBR and GW.

    Sirius Supply Chain Blues
    07/20/2006 9:34 AM

    In this article, Cramer cites the downgrade on SIRI today and is "aghast." He feels his buddy Mel is not getting the credit he deserves. However, Cramer acknowledges more downgrades by analysts who are no longer willing to "champion" the stock may be in the pipe.

    He exclaims: "
    But until Mel buys XM, there's nothing here except analysts all eager to give up on the story."

    Earnings Offer Mixed Bag
    07/20/2006 9:22 AM

    In this article, Cramer is encouraged by robust earnings from the drug makers, like WYE. Also, he is very bullish on the banks for being "well-run money machines."

    Conversly, he cites tech being "really horrendous," with the exception of AAPL.

    He sums it up: "The enterprise business of tech, corporate tech spending, is horrendous, much worse than anyone thought. "

    Comments:
    Cramer's spot on regarding the negative impact ETF's are having on the market. Watching the oil services stocks trade is like watching a convoy: Despite the fact that each is an individual unit, they all turn at the same exact time in the same exact direction.

    The SEC needs to look into breaking these up. Liquidity is what the market is all about. ETFs destroy that liquidity.
     
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